AI & ML Research Papers

AIFS-CRPS: ensemble forecasting using a model trained with a loss function based on the continuous ranked probability score

Simon Lang, Mihai Alexe, Mariana C. A. Clare, et al.

Introduces AIFS-CRPS, an ensemble weather forecasting variant of ECMWF's AIFS, trained with an almost fair CRPS loss, outperforming the physics-based IFS ensemble for most variables and lead times.