QED Investors - A biblical history of agentic payments - February 2026
FreeA biblical history of agentic payments with key market insights
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About QED Investors - A biblical history of agentic payments - February 2026
A detailed blog post from QED Investors that provides a biblical-style historical narrative of agentic payments, tracing the evolution from DeepMind and OpenAI through the current state in 2026. The author, Amias Gerety, outlines four key observations: consumer behavior is hooked on AI discovery but not yet agentic payments; large companies are actively pursuing the opportunity; a significant trust gap remains; and current payments infrastructure is small-scale and partnership-driven. The post includes a market map of incumbents and startups, emphasizing that the agentic payment moment is likely to come rapidly when it arrives.
Key Features
Historical narrative of AI and agentic payments from DeepMind to 2026
Four big observations on consumer behavior, incumbents, trust gap, and payments scale
Market map of incumbents and startups in the agentic payment ecosystem
Discussion of the trust gap (fraud, intent, accuracy) and consumer adoption roadblocks
Analysis of why startups have struggled (seed rounds vs Series A) and the 'trough of disillusionment'
Pros & Cons
Pros
- Provides a unique historical perspective using a biblical allegory
- Identifies critical challenges like trust gap and consumer behavior lag
- Acknowledges the role of incumbents and large companies, not just startups
- Includes a practical market map for navigating the space
- Offers actionable observations for startups waiting for the 'lightning strike' moment
Cons
- Opinion piece; not an exhaustive or data-heavy analysis
- Speculative about future timing and adoption patterns
- Narrow focus on agentic payments, limited to payments and commerce use cases
- Assumes reader has background knowledge of AI and fintech terms
Best For
Understanding the evolution and current state of agentic payments for investorsMarket research for fintech and AI entrepreneursAnalyzing platform shifts and payment opportunitiesInsights for executives at financial services companies evaluating agentic commerce
FAQ
What are agentic payments?
Agentic payments refer to AI-driven systems that autonomously handle payments for users, enabling AI agents to discover, research, negotiate, and complete transactions on behalf of consumers or businesses.
What are the four key observations about the agentic payment market?
1) Consumer behavior is already hooked on AI discovery but not yet clamoring for agentic payments. 2) Large companies are actively pursuing the opportunity, not ignoring it. 3) Anything 'agentic' must cross a trust gap (fraud, intent, accuracy). 4) Payments infrastructure is small-scale, janky, and driven by human partnerships, not protocols or consumer adoption.
What is the current state of agentic payments according to the article?
The pre-history is done, but widespread adoption hasn't occurred. Startups are in a 'wilderness' phase, with some perishing and others pivoting. Consumer trust and behavior are the main roadblocks, not payments technology itself. The market is waiting for a 'lightning strike' moment similar to ChatGPT's launch.