Reconcile prediction resolution

Separate the event outcome, oracle decision, recorded payout, redemption and received collateral. A closed market or displayed winning outcome is insufficient evidence of payment.

Decision loop

1. Resolve market ID, condition ID, version, outcome identifier and owner address. Confirm CTF v1 versus PositionManager v2, chain, deployed ledger, collateral and proxy/funder ownership. Field presence alone is not a reliable version discriminator. Use the official ledger references.
2. Read the complete rules and resolution source. For UMA, distinguish proposed, challenged, escalated and finalized. Resolve the actual request and bond/challenge parameters from current state. For Chainlink TWAP, compare the specified feed and lookback at the start/end; do not substitute a spot or unrelated oracle price. Recheck additional context and ties.
3. Verify finalized payout on the correct ledger at a recorded block. For CTF, read denominator and outcome numerators; zero denominator means unresolved. For V2, use current PositionManager resolution/payout reads and version-specific events. Do not transplant CTF reads to V2 or infer full payout from a binary label. Split payouts can exist; negative-risk rules differ.
4. Read the holder's canonical balance and any pending redemption state. Calculate entitlement from the verified outcome fraction and actual holdings, identifying fee/rounding/collateral units. A claimable amount is not received collateral; do not double-count a redeemed token and its released backing.
5. If a redemption hash or receipt was supplied, verify chain, success, canonical block/finality, ledger burn and collateral recipient/balance change. Automated redemption may exist: reconcile it before suggesting any new action. Index ERC-1155 transfers once, using lifecycle events as context rather than another balance change.
6. Report resolved/unresolved/disputed, payout fraction, claimable/paid/unknown and evidence identifiers. If submission timed out, track the existing hash and owner state before recommending retry. Do not propose/dispute outcomes, sign messages, call redeem, or perform money movement during this research procedure.

Worked decision

A market is closed and Yes displays 1.00, but the oracle has a disputed proposal and no finalized denominator. Report unresolved/disputed, with no verified claimable or received payout. In a separate finalized 50/50 market, 20 Yes shares give a gross entitlement of 10 collateral units before contract-specific rounding. A later successful redemption receipt still needs the actual recipient's collateral delta before describing it as paid.

Completion

Provide the versioned identity, oracle stage, recorded payout, owner balance, existing redemption identifiers, terminal receipt/balance evidence or a precise missing read. Never convert an API flag, proposal or request acceptance into proof of settlement.