Polymarket Analysis
Analyze Polymarket prediction markets for trading edges. Pair Cost arbitrage, whale tracking, sentiment analysis, momentum signals, user profile tracking. No execution.
lukebaze
@lukebaze
What This Skill Does
Multi-strategy analysis tool for Polymarket prediction markets. Detects pair cost arbitrage, tracks whale trades, analyzes momentum and sentiment, and profiles user wallet positions. No trade execution.
Replaces manual monitoring of multiple Polymarket data sources by combining arbitrage detection, whale tracking, momentum signals, and sentiment analysis into a single automated analysis pipeline.
When to Use It
- Identify YES+NO pair cost arbitrage opportunities below $0.98
- Track large trades over $5,000 from whale wallets
- Monitor price movements exceeding 5% within one hour
- Analyze momentum signals using RSI and moving averages
- Fetch a user's Polymarket position history and P&L
- Set up 24/7 alerts for volume spikes exceeding 2x the average
Install
$ openclaw skills install @lukebaze/polymarket-analysisPolymarket Analysis
Identify trading advantages in Polymarket prediction markets through multi-modal analysis.
Scope: Analysis and opportunity identification only. No trade execution.
Modes
| Mode | Description | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Analyze | One-time market analysis | This file |
| Monitor | 24/7 market monitoring | references/market-monitoring-setup.md |
| Profile | Track user wallet positions | scripts/fetch-polymarket-user-profile.py |
Scripts
# Monitor market for alerts
python3 scripts/monitor-polymarket-market.py <market_url_or_id>
# Fetch user profile/positions
python3 scripts/fetch-polymarket-user-profile.py <wallet_address> [--trades] [--pnl]
Quick Start
Market Analysis
- Get market URL from user
- Fetch via
https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug={slug} - Run multi-strategy analysis
User Profile
# From profile URL: polymarket.com/profile/0x...
python3 scripts/fetch-polymarket-user-profile.py 0x7845bc5e15bc9c41be5ac0725e68a16ec02b51b5
Core Strategies
| Strategy | Description | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Pair Cost Arbitrage | YES+NO < $1.00 | references/pair-cost-arbitrage.md |
| Momentum | RSI, MA signals | references/momentum-analysis.md |
| Whale Tracking | Large trades | references/whale-tracking.md |
| Sentiment | News/social | references/sentiment-analysis.md |
Alert Thresholds
| Event | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Price change | ±5% in 1h |
| Large trade | >$5,000 |
| Pair cost | <$0.98 |
| Volume spike | >2x avg |
APIs
| API | Base URL | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Gamma | gamma-api.polymarket.com | Markets, prices |
| Data | data-api.polymarket.com | User positions, trades, P&L |
| CLOB | clob.polymarket.com | Order books, trading |
See references/polymarket-api.md for full endpoint reference.
References
references/polymarket-api.md- API endpoints (Gamma, Data, CLOB)references/market-monitoring-setup.md- 24/7 cron monitoringreferences/pair-cost-arbitrage.md- Arbitrage detectionreferences/momentum-analysis.md- Technical analysisreferences/whale-tracking.md- Smart money trackingreferences/sentiment-analysis.md- Sentiment aggregation
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