Kalshi Weather Trader

Trade temperature markets on Kalshi using NOAA forecast data, via DFlow on Solana.

🚨 Framework, not a production trading system. Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

This is a template. The default signal is NOAA temperature forecasts — remix it with other weather APIs, different forecast models, or additional market types (precipitation, wind, etc.). The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, NOAA parsing, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Powered by DFlow. Kalshi trades execute via DFlow's Solana-based prediction market infrastructure. KYC verification through Proof is required for buys.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• Trade weather markets on Kalshi (not Polymarket)
• Set up automated temperature trading on Kalshi
• Check their Kalshi weather trading positions
• Configure trading thresholds or locations

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. Install the Simmer SDK

   pip install simmer-sdk
   

2. Ask for Simmer API key

   • They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
   • Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

3. Ask for Solana private key (required for live trading)

   • This is the base58-encoded secret key for their Solana wallet
   • Store in environment as SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY
   • The SDK uses this to sign transactions client-side automatically

4. Verify KYC

   • Required for Kalshi buys (not sells)
   • Complete at dflow.net/proof
   • Check status: curl "https://api.simmer.markets/api/proof/status?wallet=YOUR_SOLANA_ADDRESS"

5. Fund the wallet

   • SOL on Solana mainnet for transaction fees (~0.01 SOL)
   • USDC on Solana mainnet for trading capital

6. Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)

   • Entry threshold: Upper bound for when to buy (default 15¢)
   • Min entry price: Lower bound to skip lottery-ticket mids (default 0 = off)
   • Min hours to resolve: Skip entries resolving too soon (default 2h; exits keep 2h)
   • Exit threshold: When to sell (default 45¢)
   • Max position: Amount per trade (default $2.00)
   • Locations: Which cities to trade (default NYC)

7. Save settings to environment variables

8. Set up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)

Configuration

Setting	Environment Variable	Default	Description
Entry threshold	SIMMER_WEATHER_ENTRY_THRESHOLD	0.15	Upper bound — buy when price is below this
Min entry price	SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_ENTRY_PRICE	0	Lower bound — skip lottery tickets below this (0 = off), e.g. 0.15 to skip sub-15¢ tickets. Must be below the entry threshold.
Min hours to resolve	SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_HOURS_TO_RESOLVE	2	Skip entries if the market resolves in fewer than this many hours. Entry-only; exits keep a fixed 2h floor.
Exit threshold	SIMMER_WEATHER_EXIT_THRESHOLD	0.45	Sell when price above this. Raise this if you raise entry above 0.45, or the skill will self-exit.
Max position	SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_POSITION_USD	2.00	Maximum USD per trade
Max trades/run	SIMMER_WEATHER_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN	5	Maximum trades per scan cycle
Locations	SIMMER_WEATHER_LOCATIONS	NYC	Comma-separated cities (NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)
Binary only	SIMMER_WEATHER_BINARY_ONLY	false	Skip range-bucket events, only trade binary yes/no markets
Smart sizing %	SIMMER_WEATHER_SIZING_PCT	0.05	% of balance per trade
Slippage max	SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX	0.15	Skip trades with slippage above this (0.15 = 15%)
Min liquidity	SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_LIQUIDITY	0	Skip markets with liquidity below this USD amount (0 = disabled)

Supported locations: NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami

Quick Commands

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py

# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
• Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Running the Skill

# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)
python weather_trader.py

# Execute real trades
python weather_trader.py --live

# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing

# Check positions only
python weather_trader.py --positions

# View config
python weather_trader.py --config

# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for high-frequency runs)
python weather_trader.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet

How It Works

Each cycle the script:

1. Fetches active weather markets from Simmer API
2. Groups markets by event (each temperature day is one event)
3. Parses event names to get location and date
4. Fetches NOAA forecast for that location/date
5. Finds the temperature bucket that matches the forecast
6. Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage, time decay
7. Trend Detection: Looks for recent price drops (stronger buy signal)
8. Entry: If min-entry ≤ bucket price < entry threshold and safeguards pass → BUY
9. Exit: Checks open positions, sells if price > exit threshold
10. Tagging: All trades tagged with sdk:kalshi-weather for tracking

Safeguards

Before trading, the skill checks:

• Flip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much
• Slippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15% (tunable via SIMMER_WEATHER_SLIPPAGE_MAX)
• Time decay: Skips entries if market resolves in < SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_HOURS_TO_RESOLVE hours (default 2)
• Market status: Skips if market already resolved
• Kalshi maintenance: Kalshi's clearinghouse has a weekly maintenance window on Thursdays 3:00-5:00 AM ET — orders during this window will fail

SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_ENTRY_PRICE (default 0 = off) is the other side of the entry-price check, not this list — --no-safeguards does not disable it.

Disable the flip-flop / slippage / time-decay / resolved checks with --no-safeguards (not recommended).

Troubleshooting

"Safeguard blocked: Severe flip-flop warning"

• You've been changing direction too much on this market
• Wait before trading again

"Slippage too high"

• Market is illiquid, reduce position size or skip

"Resolves in Xh - too soon"

• Market resolves sooner than SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_HOURS_TO_RESOLVE (default 2h). Raise the env to skip resolve-day entries.

"Price $X.XX below min entry"

• Bucket mid is below SIMMER_WEATHER_MIN_ENTRY_PRICE. Lottery-ticket floor; default is off (0).

"No weather markets found"

• Weather markets may not be active (seasonal)
• Make sure you've imported Kalshi weather markets first: POST /api/sdk/markets/import/kalshi

"KYC verification required"

• Complete verification at dflow.net/proof
• Only required for buys, not sells

"SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY not set"

• The SDK signs transactions automatically when this env var is present
• Fix: export SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY=<your-base58-secret-key>

"Insufficient SOL for transaction fees"

• Fund your Solana wallet with at least 0.05 SOL for gas

"API key invalid"

• Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab