Mental-models Skills for OpenClaw Agents

Goodhart's Law

@deciqai

Activate when: our KPI is going up but the real outcome isn't improving; people seem to be gaming the metric; we're about to tie bonuses or promotions to a n...

munger-observer

@jdrhyne

Review a specific decision, plan, or artifact using bounded evidence, counterevidence, alternatives, opportunity cost, and verifiable next checks. Use for a "Munger review", decision review, premortem, or blind-spot review. Do not automatically scan history or assess a person's character, intent, or mental state.

Antifragile

@deciqai

Activate when: user asks whether their system/business/portfolio would survive a crisis; user says 'this has been fine for years but I'm nervous'; user wants...

Dual-System Thinking (System 1 / System 2)

@deciqai

Activate when: a decision feels obvious but the stakes are high; someone says 'I just trust my gut' on a consequential call; a team is converging fast withou...

Second-Order Thinking

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'and then what?', 'what are the second-order effects?', 'what could go wrong downstream?', 'what happens once everyone does this?',...

Survivorship Bias

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'look at what winners/billionaires/champions did,' investment returns or fund performance are being cited, a strategy is justified b...

10-10-10

@deciqai

Activate when: someone is making a decision under emotional pressure and worries they'll regret it later; someone says "I know I should do X but it feels too...

Probabilistic Thinking

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'what are the odds,' 'base rate,' 'Bayesian update,' 'calibration,' or 'what's the probability'; user is making a forecast or estima...

Occam's Razor

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'simplify this', 'which is more likely', 'are we overcomplicating this?', 'what's the most likely explanation?', or presents multipl...

Emergence

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'our culture isn't working despite directives', 'the market behaves unexpectedly', 'this worked at small scale but not at large scal...

Inversion

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'do a pre-mortem', 'what could go wrong', 'why might this fail', 'invert the question', 'what would have to be true for this to be a...

Authority Bias

@deciqai

Detect and mitigate undue influence from positional authority when expertise on the specific question is unverified or reasoning lacks independent support.

Narrative Fallacy

@deciqai

Activate when: user is reading a business case study or founder biography and drawing lessons; a post-mortem produced a neat single root cause; someone says...

Feedback Loops

@deciqai

Activate when: user says "we keep overshooting/undershooting", "the cure is causing the disease", "we're stuck in a loop", "why does this keep happening?", "...

Abductive Reasoning

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'what's the most likely explanation,' 'why did this happen,' 'we think it's X but not sure,' 'we only have one theory,' 'the team ha...

The Pareto Principle (80/20)

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'Pareto,' '80/20,' 'vital few,' 'long tail,' 'where is the leverage'; a team is treating many items as equally important; a backlog...

Cognitive Science Landscape

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'I want to improve my thinking,' 'why does my decision-making keep failing,' 'how do I optimize my cognitive performance,' 'what's t...

Critical Thinking

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'challenge my thinking', 'play devil's advocate', 'what's the strongest counter-argument', 'ACH', 'analysis of competing hypotheses'...

Hanlon's Razor

@deciqai

Activate when: someone feels a colleague/partner/company did something on purpose to hurt them; a team believes another side is acting in bad faith; someone...

Bayesian Reasoning

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'Bayesian', 'prior', 'posterior', 'base rate', 'likelihood ratio', or 'update my belief'; someone treats 'the evidence is consistent...

Latticework

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'I don't know which framework to use', 'our analysis keeps missing something', 'we need a second opinion on our model', 'how do we s...

Economies of Scale

@deciqai

Activate when: user asks "will our margins improve as we grow?", "do we need scale to compete?", "why does our competitor charge less than us?", analyzing wh...

Lindy Effect

@deciqai

Activate when: user asks 'should we use this old technology or switch to something newer', 'how do I know if a book is worth reading', 'this institution has...

Red Queen Effect

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'we keep investing but market share won't move,' 'why does nobody make money in this industry,' 'our competitor copied us again with...

Chesterton's Fence

@deciqai

Activate when: someone says 'let's just remove this', 'why do we still have this rule?', 'this seems useless/outdated', 'nobody knows why this is here', new...

Hindsight Bias

@deciqai

Activate when: someone says 'I knew it all along' or 'we should have seen it coming'; a post-mortem is blaming someone for not predicting an outcome; a team...

Compound Interest

@deciqai

Activate when: user asks about starting early vs. later for savings/investing, wonders if small consistent gains add up, wants to know how long to double mon...

Map Is Not the Territory

@deciqai

Activate when: a metric is improving but customers or employees are signaling problems; a strategy or process hasn't been reviewed in over a planning cycle;...

Falsifiability

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'what would prove this wrong', 'how do we know if our strategy is working', 'what would change your mind', 'this claim feels unfalsi...

Circle of Competence

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'should I enter this market / make this hire / invest in this domain,' 'am I qualified to evaluate this,' 'stay in your lane,' 'stic...

BATNA & ZOPA

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'walk-away point', 'reservation price', 'should I take this deal', 'what's my leverage', 'they won't budge', or any salary/term-shee...

Regression to the Mean

@deciqai

Activate when: someone says 'things always bounce back,' wonders why an intervention seemed to work on a struggling team, is surprised their star performer r...

Cross-Disciplinary Creativity

@deciqai

Activate when: 'we need a breakthrough idea', 'everything in our industry looks the same', 'we've exhausted all options in our field', 'how do we innovate in...

Decision Tree

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'help me choose between two options with different risks', 'I need to map out what could happen if we go with X', 'we have a sequent...

Checklist

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'let's make sure we don't skip anything', 'we need a pre-flight', 'build me a checklist for X', 'we keep missing steps in our deploy...

Regret Minimization

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'what would my 80-year-old self think', 'if I never try this will I regret it', 'I keep hesitating but the math is clear', 'regret m...

Comparative Advantage

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'should I do this myself or delegate,' 'I'm the best at X so I should do it,' 'should we outsource or build in-house,' 'how should w...

Halo Effect

@deciqai

Activate when: user is conducting a performance review or hiring interview; someone says 'she's great across the board' or 'everything they do is excellent';...

Self-Evolution 3D

@deciqai

Activate when: user says "I've been working hard but I'm not growing," development programs feel pointless, a leader has plateaued despite strong expertise,...

Non-Consensus Thinking

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'everyone agrees on this,' 'the obvious move is X,' 'why go against the grain?'; user is entering a crowded market where the right s...

Dunning-Kruger Effect

@deciqai

Activate when: someone says 'how hard could it be' about an unfamiliar domain; a novice dismisses expert opinion or says 'I could do that'; someone's self-as...

Confirmation Bias

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'we keep finding evidence that supports our view,' 'the team is all aligned on this,' 'I've done the research and it checks out,' or...

Black Swan

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'this can't happen,' 'never happened in N years,' 'our models say it's near-zero'; user is stress-testing a strategy or portfolio ag...

Opportunity Cost

@deciqai

Activate when: user says "what could we have done instead," "what's the next-best alternative," "is this worth the cost," "what are we giving up by choosing...

Power-Law Distribution

@deciqai

Activate when: user is allocating capital or resources across a portfolio and wants to know where to concentrate; user says 'our average customer / deal / em...

Point → Line → Plane → Solid (点–线–面–体)

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'we're good at X but not growing,' 'we need a moat,' 'we're just a feature not a platform,' 'competition keeps copying us,' 'we want...

Hidden Elite Advantages

@deciqai

Activate when: 'what makes top investors/founders truly different', 'how do I close the gap with elite performers', 'what am I missing that successful people...

Availability Heuristic

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'we keep hearing about X so it must be common', 'that just happened so it's risky', 'the news is full of stories about this', 'I've...

Nine-Level Cognitive Tower

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'how do I level up my thinking', 'why do I keep copying others', 'I don't know what I don't know', 'how do I develop independent jud...

Anchoring

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'what's a fair price / starting number / ballpark'; counterparty just opened with a number; user is about to negotiate salary, valua...

Cognitive Evolution Stages

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'I understand it but can't apply it,' 'how do I stop just copying other people's work,' 'I can adapt frameworks but can't create new...

Knowing and Doing as One

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'I know I should but I haven't', a team is stuck in analysis paralysis going in circles, you need to assess whether someone actually...

Change and Constants Framework

@deciqai

Activate when: 'we keep debating whether to pivot or stay the course', 'I don't know what we should never change', 'is this signal or noise?', 'the market sh...

Lifestage Value Curve

@deciqai

Activate when: someone asks 'what should I focus on at my age,' 'I feel like I'm wasting my best years,' 'how do I plan my career long-term,' 'what does my 4...

Three-Radius Model — 认知/能力/行动三半径

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'I know what to do but I'm not doing it', 'we understand the problem but can't fix it', 'effort isn't translating to results', 'why...

Dichotomy of Control

@deciqai

Activate when: user says "I can't stop worrying about something I can't control," "I'm anxious about how this will turn out," "I keep replaying what went wro...

Thought Experiment

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'what if,' 'let's reason through this,' 'imagine that,' or 'thought experiment'; a strategic decision is too risky or irreversible t...

Margin of Safety

@deciqai

Activate when: user asks how much buffer to build into a budget, timeline, or investment; someone says 'I might be wrong on my estimate — how much cushion do...

Sunk-Cost Fallacy

@deciqai

Activate when: user says 'we've come too far to quit', 'we can't waste what we've already spent', 'should I keep going or cut my losses', 'we've invested too...

Arrow's Information Paradox

@deciqai

Diagnoses the buyer/seller deadlock in any trade of information — the buyer cannot value what they cannot see, but once they see it they have it for free — a...